WEDNESDAY,  FEBRUARY 6,  2008

•   It's over.  But, of course, it isn't.  Super Tuesday probably did settle the Republican nomination, although not with the knockout McCain had wanted.  But, as I said last night as I was blogging through the returns, I can't see any realistic scenario that would deny him the nomination.  Republicans, even the legions that don't care for McCain, should now get behind him, if for only one reason:  Consider an Obama Supreme Court or a Clinton Supreme Court.  Do we scream now, or later? 

At the same time, I have no problem with conservatives "counseling" McCain on some of his sins, reminding him that he's "that close" to the presidency, and hinting that they could stay home on election day if they're displeased with him.  He'll tell them that would be foolish.  They'll reply that sometimes people do foolish things, and that saying so won't do him a bit of good if he has to return to the Senate a defeated man.  The message will be sent.

•   On the Democratic side, a closer look at the returns leads me to say that Obama had a disappointing night.  Many of his "victories" were in caucuses, which tend to bring out the true believers, the low-cholesterol crowd.  They do not win elections.  Clinton won almost all the big prizes last night, including California, where, we'd been reliably told by John Zogby, she was about to be buried. 

We've now had several occasions where the demise of Hillary Clinton had been gravely predicted.  She survived near-death experiences each time, and emerged stronger.

Why is that?

First, and this is sad, her opponent is Barack Obama, and African-Americans often do more poorly in the actual vote than in pre-vote polls.  Analysts suggest that some voters tell a pollster that they'll vote for the black guy, but then refuse to do so. 

There are other reasons, though.  Clinton is a fighter, and, despite volumes one through six of her defects, she's a grown-up in politics.  She knows the game, and plays it hard.  Further, voters just before Super Tuesday may have given Obama a cool second look, and may have concluded that he just isn't ready.  I suspect this is more of a factor than we now realize.

Consider Obama's "victory" speech last night.  It was one of the few discordant notes of the evening, and a warning to the Obama forces.  Sometimes a mature candidate has to deal with facts.  When you lose New York, New Jersey, Massachusetts, and California in the same night, you're not singin' in the rain.  True, Obama won more states than Clinton did, but, as I've noted, they were largely the caucus, let's-meet-in-Joe's-living-room states. 

Yet, this is what Obama said last night:

'We are the hope for the future,'' he said, ''the answer to the cynics who tell us our house must stand divided.'' 

Not quite, my friend.  A lot of people didn't think so.  You did not get a majority of the votes, even in your left-wing party.

Or this:

''It's a choice between having a debate with the other party about who has the most experience in Washington or about who can change Washington,'' Obama said. ''Because that's a debate that we can win.'' 

Excuse me.  Did he admit he couldn't win a debate about experience?  Mr. Obama, that's a major debate. 

After a time, Obama's "inspirational" speeches wear thin.  That may be happening already.  His staff last night was saying that they're optimistic because they now have more time, and they have loads of money.  As people get to know Barack Obama, they claim, they move toward him.

I'm not so sure.  They're getting to know him, and, on the most important primary day so far, he fell short.  Is it possible he's peaked?  Has all the hoopla and "rock-star" stuff worn out its welcome?  Have people begun to resent Oprah Winfrey intruding into politics?  Well, maybe. 

There's also the delicate matter of racial voting.  Look, it's understandable.  It's a matter of group pride.  Let's not be holier-than-thou, especially since we've all been there.  In New York we used to have what was politely called "the balanced ticket" - a Catholic, a Jew, maybe a black guy, maybe a Hispanic, a woman, a European ethnic.  The voting booth was a miniature UN.  But bloc racial voting of the kind we're seeing for Obama has its price.  It almost always creates a backlash, a resentment, and we may see that happening.

There are major primaries coming up in Ohio and Texas, two key states.  After they're fought, we'll have a clearer picture.

•   In The Washington Times, Joseph Curl gives a solid analysis of how John McCain would match up in an election against either Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama.  Right now, he'd do better against Clinton.  The quote:

"With Hillary Clinton, John McCain would start as a very moderate favorite," pollster Scott Rasmussen said. "McCain would have the edge among independent voters. He is viewed very favorably by independents and Senator Clinton struggles in that area."

Obama doesn't have Clinton's baggage.  But that's now.  The election will be held nine months from now.  That's long enough to create a baby or create an image of Barack Obama as young, inexperienced, and dangerous.  Start now.

•  Readers of Urgent Agenda may recall that I wrote two "advisories" on how John McCain can defeat either Obama or Clinton.  Several readers e-mailed me to ask for them.  The Obama memo can be found here.  The Clinton memo is here.

•   In The Washington Post, Michael Gerson, who was President Bush's speechwriter, rightly argues that the surge for McCain is directly traceable to the surge in Iraq, and that Bush deserves some credit for McCain's success:

The revival of McCain's campaign was possible for one reason: the revival of American fortunes in Iraq. Most categories of violence in Iraq are now down by more than 60 percent, and sectarian attacks in Baghdad have fallen by 90 percent. Sunni tribal leaders are conducting the first large-scale revolt of Arabs against al-Qaeda thuggery -- which includes, we learned last week, strapping explosives to a mentally disabled woman and setting off a blast in a market.

McCain seems well suited to deal with this kind of evil -- precisely because he would diagnose it as evil.

This is a moment of rich political paradox. McCain's stubbornness on Iraq is transformed by the calendar into courage. The issue that was supposed to dominate the campaign and destroy the Republicans has helped to elevate a strong Republican candidate. And in spite of past bad blood between President Bush and McCain, it was Bush's decision on the surge that allowed McCain's remarkable comeback. If we ever see a President McCain, he will have President Bush to thank.

Yup.

•   Finally, do you remember how the Europeans turned their noses up at us during the Clinton/Lewinsky scandal because we were so consumed by a president's personal behavior?  After all, true sophisticates think nothing of such little pleasures.  We Europeans are not like those, those God-loving cowboys. 

Well, apparently the Euros are having second thoughts.  Nicolas Sarkozy, new president of France, is taking a hit for his very public romancing of his new wife:

Enfin, the rumors confirmed! Last weekend, President Sarkozy of France married his singer-supermodel sweetheart, Carla Bruni, in a 20-minute civil ceremony at the Elysees Palace, the French White House. A city official performed the service. The bridal party consisted of family members plus one or two fashionable friends. Apparently the bride wore white.

Somehow, though, the first French presidential nuptials since 1931 were not an entirely joyous national event. Though a few people tried to say something nice about the wedding — "C'est formidable," declared Bernadette Chirac, ex-first lady of France — the Sarkozy-Brunis woke up the following morning to news that the nation did not approve: Already on a downward trajectory, support for Mr. Sarkozy's presidency has plunged.

Let's root for Nicky, despite his fling.  He likes Americans.

Be back later.

Posted on February 6, 2008.